Brexit News Archive: 08 Jul 2016

Why A Rising S&P 500 Has Been The Antidote To Crises

Earlier this week we said the Brexit drama would likely be dethroned, byFriday, as the dominant market narrative. Why? Because it's jobs week. As we've said in the past, this (non farm payrolls/job creation) is the data point that market participants and the media have been trained for decades to ...
Bryan Rich, Contributor / Forbes   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 22:01:00

'Trump-Brexit' Factors Could Triple Bitcoin Transactions But Where's The Price Heading?

What's in store for Bitcoin, the 'daddy' of all cryptocurrencies? Well, according to new industry research transaction values in the digital currency could almost triple to $92 billion (bn) in 2016 over last year. But with the price having risen 50% so far this year, where the price might be ...
Roger Aitken, Contributor / Forbes   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 21:12:00

Javid looking for hundreds of trade experts

Business secretary expects years of talks with states such as China, Japan and the US after Brexit
FT   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 20:18:38

Jobs Bounce Sends Stocks Soaring To Record High As Bond Yields Hit Record Lows

Well punk, "do you feel wealthy?" First things first, there is this... (2130.82 record close, 2134.72 record intra high) *S&P 500 RALLIES 1.6% TO 2,130.83, RISING ABOVE RECORD CLOSE And then there is this... for 2016... And since Brexit... And today... While on the topic - cash indices reached pre-Brexit ...
Zero Hedge   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 20:03:14

Jobs Surprise Sends S&P 500 Back Toward Record Highs

A snapback in monthly jobs figures fueled a big rally on Wall Street that has the market once again chasing record highs.
Shreya Agarwal, Forbes Staff / Forbes   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 19:31:00

U.S. FundFlows Insight Report: Despite the Up Week, Fund Investors Duck for Cover

In spite of the "Brexit" vote, investors pushed the U.S. broad indices back into positive territory for the fund-flows week ended July 6, 2016, after reports indicated the European Central
Alpha Now   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 19:15:18

Economic View: How a Quest by Elites Is Driving and Trump

Unlike the public, economists seem more concerned about the size of the pie than whether everyone gets a slice.
NEIL IRWIN / NY Times   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 19:06:15

Managed Futures CTAs Once Again Dominate Hedge Fund Performance List

As the Brexit sell off and "V" shaped recovery is now history, a pattern of behavior is emerging. Many of the well-known Wall Street "brand" hedge funds are showing up on one side of the win/loss column while a new [...]
Value Walk   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 18:44:37

Tata stops Port Talbot plant sale as talks begin with German steel group

Thyssenkrupp could enter join venture with Indian conglomerate but both seek assurances of support from British government, especially after Brexit Tata Steel has halted plans to sell the Port Tablot steelworks and is instead working on keeping its UK business as part of a joint venture with the German conglomerate ...
Graham Ruddick / Guardian   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 18:03:11

May challenges Leadsom to keep campaign 'clean'

Fears rise Tory contest could become re-run of divisive Brexit battle
FT   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 18:00:45

In Debt: Economic Uncertainty Remains Even After

That Britain, would somehow reject the rational choice seems to have never occurred to investors worldwide, and now we see the consequences.
STEPHEN J. LUBBEN / NY Times   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 17:48:56

In Debt: Economic Uncertainty Remains Even After

That Britain, would somehow reject the rational choice seems to have never occurred to investors worldwide, and now we see the consequences.
DealBook   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 17:33:15

Financials jump ahead of earnings updates

Strong US jobs report helps erase post-Brexit loss for S&P 500
FT   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 17:17:27

Investors rejoice after strong jobs report ... for now

Stocks rallied following a solid June jobs report. The Dow & S&P 500 are not far from all-time highs again. But will the good vibrations soon end? After all, Brexit is still a concern. So is China. Second-quarter earnings may be weak too.
CNN   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 17:10:41

Lifetime High Near

Brexit? Are you kidding? That is so two weeks ago. We are at this point a mere 0.5% away from the highest level (2134.72) in human history on the S&P 500. It's looking pretty grim for the handful of bears that are left.
Tim Knight   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 16:29:02

Opinion: Don't Forget the Western Balkans

Following the Brexit vote, attention in the EU is likely to shift to internal debates on the future of European integration. But it's important that Europe not forget the Western Balkans, for whom the prospect of membership in the bloc is an important motivator for peace.
Spiegel   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 16:26:19

MORGAN STANLEY: There's a 40% chance of a global recession in the next year

There's a 40% chance of a global recession in the next year, according to Morgan Stanley. The US investment bank raised its estimate on the probability from 30%, because of Brexit and the political and economic instability of its aftermath. In the UK, the leadership situation has been "increasingly fluid," ...
Business Insider   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 16:21:55

London real estate sales jump

A slide in the British pound attracted bargain hunters seeking a rare opportunity to buy London property at a discount.
CNBC   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 16:14:00

BRIEF-S&P affirms 'AAA/A-1+' ratings on Germany; outlook stable

* Germany's diversified economy to continue to be able to absorb large economic, financial shocks; we see no impact from brexit on sovereign ratings
Reuters   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 15:41:24

Kazakhstan just one-upped George Soros

Kazakhstan just one-upped George Soros. In an interview with Bloomberg News' Nariman Gizitdinov, Daniyar Akishev, the governor of the Kazkahstan's central bank, said the bank bet pulled out the British pound ahead of the Brexit vote. Akshev told Gizidinov the bank went long at 1.4350 pounds against the dollar, and ...
Business Insider   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 15:22:00

Why Italy could be the next European country to face an economic crisis

In the United States, we view the economic crisis that started in 2008 as something that ended years ago; the story now is the slow pace of recovery. But in Europe, the crisis genuinely hasn't ended. Greece had a major debt crisis as recently as last year, and Spain is ...
Vox   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 15:20:02

Senior MP tells regional leaders to fight for 'northern powerhouse'

Local government secretary Greg Clark urges northern cities to push their case amid Brexit and party leadership upheaval The north of England has a "big fight" ahead to ensure the new prime minister does not abandon the "northern powerhouse" project to rebalance the UK economy after the vote to leave ...
Helen Pidd North of England editor / Guardian   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 15:10:10

José Manuel Barroso to become next head of Goldman Sachs International

Former Portuguese PM and head of EU commission will help Wall Street firm deal with fallout of Brexit vote José Manuel Barroso, the former Portuguese prime minister and one-time head of the European commission, has been hired by Goldman Sachs to will help the Wall Street firm deal with the ...
Jill Treanor / Guardian   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 15:09:44

Wall Street: Best places to invest

In the global search for returns after the Brexit vote, many analysts see opportunity in U.S. stocks and emerging markets.
CNBC   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 14:51:00

EUR/USD Could Grind Higher Towards 1.25: UBS

Following the "Leave" side prevailing in the U.K. referendum, UBS analysts believe the EUR/USD will continue its gradual convergence higher toward a fair value of around 1.25. Daniel Waldman and team said in their July 5 research piece titled "Global FX Atlas: [...]
Value Walk   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 14:48:57

With every crisis comes a big job title

UK plc needs negotiators with experience in its Brexit-induced hour of need
FT   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 14:33:41

Some pivotal questions about UK real estate

Osmaan Malik and Charles Boissier from the UBS equities team breakdown some of the key questions everyone is asking about UK real estate post the Brexit vote. Surprise point: REITs may be better positioned than most expect Continue reading: Some pivotal questions about UK real estate
FT Alphaville   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 14:33:03

The bond market just did something that hasn't happened since 1956

The bond market just set a distressing record for income-oriented investors. According to Lotfi Karoui and the credit strategy team at Goldman Sachs, yields for corporate bond have not been this low in nearly 6 decades. After noting that the recent Brexit vote had investors searching for safe assets instead ...
Business Insider   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 14:12:00

CEE MARKETS-Forint, bonds gain on hopes for Moody's Hungary upgrade

* Moody's may upgrade Hungary to investment grade on Friday * Forint hits firmest levels since June 23 Brexit referendum * Poll sees zloty recovering from Brexit hut by year-end * Serbian...
Reuters   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 14:09:05

Investors pile into corporate bond funds

Funds receive inflows of $14.4bn over past week in wake of Brexit jitters, with US receiving main share
FT   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 14:05:30

Iron ladies in race to lead

The winner's first task will be to extricate Britain from its 43-year EU membership following the seismic Brexit vote.
Austrailian   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 14:00:00

Goldman Ups Gold Fields To Buy, Says Gold Rally Will Continue

Demand for investor safe havens has jumped after Brexit, pushing Treasury yields to new lows and putting some $12 trillion on debt into negative yield territory, according to Fitch Ratings . In this environment, with stimulus on the table from central banks around the world and a depreciating renminbi pushing ...
Stocks To Watch   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 13:35:13

Beneath a Placid Surface, Stock Market Is In Danger

Beneath a Placid Surface, Stock Market Is In Danger A number of technical indicators, as well as the post-Brexit rally in bonds and utilities, bode ill for the S&P 500.Beneath a Placid Surface, Stock Market Is In Danger A number of technical indicators, as well as the post-Brexit rally in ...
Barrons   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 13:10:52

Your Last Minute Payrolls Preview

Another payroll Friday is upon us and one which would have been a long-awaited event had Brexit not intervened. As Jim reid writes, it's still important as it was only last month (it seems a lifetime ago) that we saw the shock 38k print relative to 160k expectations. The Verizon ...
Zero Hedge   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 12:14:27

Cocoa surge to hit UK chocolate lovers

Pound's post-Brexit plunge pushes up contracts
FT   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 11:49:48

FTSE 100 surge puts pressure on fund chiefs

Brexit turmoil makes it harder to beat the FTSE All-Share index
FT   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 11:44:44

Frontrunning: July 8

Snipers kill five Dallas police; Obama calls it 'despicable' attack (Reuters) Global stocks regain ground, Treasury near record low as U.S. jobs data looms (Reuters) House Republicans Push for New Hillary Clinton Investigation (WSJ) Obama urges NATO to stand firm against Russia despite Brexit (Reuters) Kremlin says NATO talk of ...
Zero Hedge   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 11:42:51

Morning News: July 8, 2016

Brexit Batters UK Consumer Confidence, Retailers Worry Over Sterling Oil Bounces Off Two-Month Lows But Faces Sharp Weekly Loss Jobs Report in U.S. to Get [...]
Eddy Elfenbein   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 11:03:24

Spotlight Back on U.S. Jobs and Interest Rates

U.S. futures are pointing to a slightly higher open on Friday as investor focus turns temporarily away from Brexit and the Italian banking system to the June U.S. jobs report and what it means for interest rates. The surprise decision by the U.K. to leave the E.U. and the resurfacing ...
OANDA   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 10:37:02

Bank of Italy says public money needed to help embattled banks

Italy's banks are saddled with $400-billion of bad loans and their shares have been hit by heavy selling this year, which has intensified in the wake of last month's Brexit referendum
Globe and Mail   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 10:22:37

BIG CALL: A stockbroker thinks London house prices could fall by 20% in the next year

UK investment bank and stockbroker finnCap thinks London house prices could fall as much as 20% in the wake of the Brexit vote. In a note on Friday, finnCap says uncertainty surrounding the UK's economic future will lead investors to put a big discount on property. That may weaken demand ...
Business Insider   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 09:56:27

Why the US thinks we'll vote again

'Many Americans seem to find it hard to believe that Brexit will really take place'
Gillian Tett   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 09:26:57

Markets and Politics in 2016

Markets and Politics in 2016 David R Kotok Cumberland Advisors, July 7, 2016     As the second half of 2016 unfolds, politics seem to be the single dominant global force. Markets either ignore politics or panic in the face of them. Let's take an inventory. Brexit Certainly all eyes ...
The Big Picture   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 09:00:27

Brexit and Trump a reminder that trade deals must offer visible employment payoff: Don Pittis

To free market economists, the promise of more and more trade deals is part of global business efficiency. But the Brexit vote and support for Donald Trump are both reminders that business success is not enough if it creates a populist backlash from the underemployed.
Don Pittis / CBC   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 09:00:00

Foxes in the Chicken House

Turning Inward U.S. stocks fell a little on Monday. After the excitement of Brexit, investors don't seem to know what to do. Some believe the vote in Britain signals a "breaking up" pattern... a move toward Trumpism and away from globalization and financialization. Mark Carney... quite possibly the biggest bubble ...
Acting Man   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 08:44:08

Beaufort Securities Breakfast Alert : UK consumer confidence falls sharply in July

A nervous opening in London is expected to see the FTSE-100 marked down around 20 points in early trade. Perhaps not too surprising, the first assessment of UK consumer confidence post-Brexit makes for sobering reading. The all-important survey, which acts as a bellwether for the overall economic outlook, registered its ...
Proactive Investors   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 08:26:00

Tory leadership contest: Betting odds and poll predictions on who is favourite to become Prime Minister

Daniel Dunford / Telegraph   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 08:15:00

Smaller UK banks squeezed hard: OakNorth chair

OakNorth chairman, Cyrus Ardalan says the Bank of England's decision to reduce the capital buffer rate is a positive step, while discussing the banking sector impact following Brexit.
CNBC   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 08:08:00

The Biter Bit: Gove Comes a Cropper

The EU referendum campaign ended well enough for Michael Gove. His side, the one that clamored for leaving the European Union, won a surprise victory; his friend and colleague Boris Johnson looked poised to replace David Cameron as prime minister; Gove could be assured of a spot at his side ...
National Review   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 08:00:53

U.K. Leadership Fight Pits Seasoned May Against Untested Leadsom

The all-female battle to be the next U.K. prime minister pits a known quantity in Home Secretary Theresa May, supported by the bulk of Conservative lawmakers, against the controversial newcomer energy minister, Andrea Leadsom, whose pro-Brexit credentials could create an upset. The fight to succeed David Cameron and manage the ...
OANDA   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 07:26:11

Markets cautious ahead of US jobs data

Stocks mixed and bond yields dip as Brexit worries linger
FT   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 07:08:29

Further reading

Elsewhere on Friday, - Constâncio yesterday: "The present situation, after a new round of reduced stock prices following Brexit, deserves a deep reflection about the offsetting of some market failures with a small public support to markedly improve the stability of some banking sectors." - Das: Why traders have lost ...
FT Alphaville   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 07:04:05

UK consumer confidence in sharpest drop in decades amid recession fears

U.K. consumer confidence has fallen dramatically in the wake of the Brexit referendum result.
CNBC   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 06:27:00

Lagarde Flip-Flops Again On Brexit, Warns Of Trump-Style Protectionism

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Ahead of the vote on Brexit, IMF head Christine Lagarde warned of a prolonged period of uncertainty. After the vote, Largarde said Brexit provided the EU a better opportunity for reform. Today Largarde is certain of disastrous consequences if another large county turns protectionist. ...
Zero Hedge   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 06:00:00

NATO leaders to show resolve towards Russia

NATO leaders will display their resolve towards a resurgent Russia at a summit despite what many see as a weakening of the West due to Britain's vote to leave the EU.
CNBC   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 05:29:00

Asian Shares Mostly Lower

Shares in Asia broadly slipped amid unease over lower oil prices and a coming U.S. jobs report, as the focus of traders' anxiety shifted away from Brexit.
WSJ   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 04:31:12

APAC Currency Corner- NFP Time Again !

Non-Farm Payroll-May Anomaly While the sharp edge of Non-Farm Payroll Day has been dulled by Brexit-driven volatility, none the less, traders will be watching the data intently. Specifically, they will be looking for a potential rebound from the dismal 38,000 jobs recorded in May, which the market interpreted as transformative ...
OANDA   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 01:38:05

The Stock Market Is Heading for a Wile E. Coyote Moment

Warner Brothers Anthony MirhaydariJuly 8, 2016 U.S. equities remain steadfast in the wake of the surprise Brexit vote two weeks ago. Just look at the action on Wednesday and Thursday, as shares calmly recovered from early session weakness despite ongoing pressure on the European banking system. The summer calm comes ...
arader / Fiscal Times   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 01:36:56

Italian journalists cleared in Vatican leaks trial

Wall Street was rallying to recover all of its post-Brexit losses after data showed the best US job growth in eight months in June.
Buenos Aires Herald   |   Fri, 8 Jul 2016 00:00:00

Investors pile into corporate bond funds

Funds get inflows of $14.4bn over past week in wake of Brexit jitters, with US receiving main share
FT   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 23:31:41

Brexit to bash Brits but not Trump: Survey

The U.K. economy will be negatively affected by the country's vote to leave the EU, according to a new CNBC survey of chief financial officers.
CNBC   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 23:06:00

Beneath a Placid Surface, Stock Market Is In Danger

Beneath a Placid Surface, Stock Market Is In Danger A number of technical indicators, as well as the post-Brexit rally in bonds and utilities, bode ill for the S&P 500.Beneath a Placid Surface, Stock Market Is In Danger A number of technical indicators, as well as the post-Brexit rally in ...
Barrons   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 22:19:22

Beneath a Placid Surface, Stock Market Danger Lurks

A number of technical indicators, as well as the post-Brexit rally in bonds and utilities, bode ill for the S&P 500.
Barrons   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 21:41:59

Resilience of London Stock Index Isn't All It Appears

Bloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsBloomberg NewsFTSE 100 Resilience Isn't All It Appears Britain's vote to leave the European Union triggered steep losses across global markets, but one unlikely corner of the investment world has outperformed-the U.K.'s own FTSE 100 share index.Why ...
WSJ   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 21:11:27

Mortgage Rates: A Near-Record Low And A Near-Record Run

Mortgage rates hit a new 2016 low last week, falling to 3.41 percent in the wake of the Brexit vote. Home loans haven't been this cheap in three years and are flirting with the record-low 3.31 percent reached in November 2012, according to Freddie Mac. Source: Freddie Mac Here's another ...
Lorraine Woellert, Contributor / Forbes   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 20:35:00

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA)- SolarCity Corp (SCTY) Gamble Boost Earnings?

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) -SolarCity Corp (NASDAQ:SCTY) Gamble Boost Earnings? Between Brexit and the election there are a few other headlines flooding financial news. Just a few weeks ago news broke that Tesla made a [...]
Value Walk   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 20:27:24

Is Consumer Confidence About To Collapse?

Since Brexit, the financial world has become gravely concerned about the state of the macro economy. Indeed, global trade is slowing, central banks seem to be running out of tools to stimulate economic growth, debt is rising in developed nations [...]
Value Walk   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 20:20:56

Soveriegn Credit Is Deteriorating At A Record Pace

Culminating with the tipping of the UK's numerous real estate fund and the subsequent fallout in the wake Brexit, Fitch has been on a ratings-slashing spree, having cut the credit ratings on 14 nations so far in 2016, most recently that of the United Kingdom - a record downgrade pace ...
Zero Hedge   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 19:00:53

A Stock Rally Only a Bear Could Love

"Post-Brexit Rally Fades" was an inevitable headline. Not because every rally fades eventually, but because the U.S. stock market has been transformed it into something alien to normal capital markets.
MoneyBeat   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 18:52:22

Property fund turmoil continues as three more firms cut value

Around £5bn of commercial property could be put up for sale as post-EU referendum turmoil prompts managers to revalue portfolios Shopping centres, office blocks and warehouses worth up to £5bn could be put up for sale as the turmoil in the UK commercial property sector prompted by the Brexit vote ...
Jill Treanor and Hilary Osborne / Guardian   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 18:42:23

Economic View: How a Quest by Elites Is Driving and Trump

Unlike the public, economists seem more concerned about the size of the pie than whether everyone gets a slice.
NEIL IRWIN / NY Times   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 18:36:12

Kipper Williams on the property fund freeze

Trusts are suspending trading and stopping investors withdrawing their funds as Brexit jitters grip the commercial property market Continue reading...
Kipper Williams / Guardian   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 18:21:10

MA's Ken Matheny Quoted in Reuters

MA's Ken Matheny was quoted in the article, "Fog of Brexit clouds outlook for central banks seeking clarity" by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir at Reuters (excerpts shown below). For much of this year, the dollar, oil prices, and economic conditions largely behaved as the U.S. Federal Reserve had expected, ...
Macroadvisers   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 18:12:05

Why central banks are moving markets

Keep an eye on central bank moves for the market's next post-Brexit response, says Oppenheimer Funds Chief Investment Officer Krishna Memani.
CNBC   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 17:52:00

Great Graphic: More Thoughts on Banks

Italian banks were struggling before the UK referendum. The result drove down interest rate, which keeps margins under pressure. The prospects of weaker growth as a result of Brexit means that demand for credit will remain soft. At the sametime, the ECB's stress test at the end of the month ...
Marc to Market   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 17:02:30

This is money - mail: Property hits levels of unaffordability not seen since before the financial crisis as house prices rise by almost 3k in June

UK house prices continued to rise in June, adding almost 3,000 GBP in a month, stretching affordability to levels not seen since the run-up to the financial crisis in 2007, a new survey suggests. Halifax said it was too early to say how the referendum that sanctioned the UK's decision ...
House Price Crash   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 16:26:49

U.K. home prices could drop. But don't get too excited...

First-time home buyers may be excited that U.K. house prices could soon fall in the wake of the Brexit vote. But it's not all good news for potential home buyers.
CNN   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 16:22:11

Transaction costs as the saviour of UK real-estate?

Six open-ended UK property funds (and counting) have suspended redemptions on the back of Brexit induced volatility leading some to worry the market's on the verge of a sizeable correction in UK real-estate prices. But this isn't the crisis of 2007, says SG's Jean-David Cirotteau. As Cirotteau and team observe, ...
FT Alphaville   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 16:15:31

Gold slips on decent ADP jobs number

A decent set of private job numbers from payroll firm ADP took some shine off gold as traders looked ahead to tomorrow's non-farm jobs number for June. The US economy has taken a back seat to Brexit recently, but it is still a major determinant in sentiment over gold and ...
Proactive Investors   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 16:02:00

Looming Worldwide Credit Crunch

Lede: Piecing together seemingly disparate phenomena such as Brexit, Donald Trump's rise, China's debt problems, and the curtailment of credit by bearish financiers, James H. Nolt argues that all signs point toward one thing: an imminent financial crisis. By James H. Nolt read more
World Policy   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 15:50:18

Michael Gove knocked out of PM race

Brexit campaigner and Justice Secretary Michael Gove was eliminated from the race to be the next U.K. prime minister on Thursday.
CNBC   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 15:46:00

Politics: Is it all over for men?

David Cameron will step down as UK prime minister after losing the Brexit referendum; Shinzo Abe's economic reforms are running out of steam in Japan; and male politicians as varied as Francois Hollande in France, Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine and Mexico's Enrique Pena Nieto are struggling with their poll ratings. ...
CNN   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 15:37:45

Citi's 'Bear Market Checklist' says the coast is clear to 'buy the dip'

The stock market is going nowhere fast, according to Citi. Robert Buckland and the global strategy team at Citi said it is unlikely for stocks to go anywhere in the foreseeable future. "The Brexit vote has damaged the outlook for the global economy and EPS," wrote Buckland in a note ...
Money Game   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 15:35:00

Tory leadership contest: Betting odds and poll predictions on who is favourite to become Prime Minister

Daniel Dunford / Telegraph   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 15:30:59

Will London bankers flock to Paris?

Brexit has given the French an opportunity to get one over the English, writes William Wallis
FT   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 15:28:21

Current Links

**Most-Recent Must-Reads:** * **Pseudoerasmus**: [Did Inequality Cause the First World War? Contra * **Kevin Drum**: [NAFTA and China Aren't Responsible for Our Steel * **Narayana Kocherlakota**: [Three Antidotes to the Brexit * **John Holbo**: [Podcasts I just listened **Most-Recent Links:** * **Walter Greason**: [Introduction to the...
Grasping Reality   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 15:13:30

Critical Developments In The Copper Market

It's been a roller-coaster couple of weeks for copper. With the Brexit scare dropping the price nearly 4 percent in a day - only to come soaring back to multi-month highs immediately afterward. Uncertainty seems to be the order of the day in this space. As evidenced by several big ...
Oil Price   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 15:07:38

Citizenship test foxes would-be Danes

Broken-hearted by Brexit, thousands of Britons are applying, or thinking of applying, for citizenship in another EU country. All I can say is, unless you have recently won the BBC television quiz shows Mastermind or University Challenge, forget Denmark. According to Inger Støjberg, Denmark's integration minister, more than two-thirds of ...
FT The World   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 15:06:55

Crowded Trades Delivering Hedge Fund Pain

The US quantitative risk model at AllianceBernstein was in neutral for months, but jumped several levels right into high risk immediately following the Brexit vote. Their forward-looking global risk management model is showing signs of potential increased volatility ahead. In [...]
Value Walk   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 15:01:19

The stock market is 'trapped'

The stock market is going nowhere fast, according to Citi. Robert Buckland and the global strategy team at Citi said it is unlikely for stocks to go anywhere in the foreseeable future. "The Brexit vote has damaged the outlook for the global economy and EPS," wrote Buckland in a note ...
Business Insider   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 14:46:18

Financing markets reflect dollar demand

Three-month dollar Libor slowly creeping higher since Brexit as interbank lending tightens
FT   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 14:44:19

A "Deep Crisis", And Three Other Critical Developments For Copper

It's been a roller-coaster couple of weeks for copper. With the Brexit scare dropping the price nearly 4% in a day - only to come soaring back to multi-month highs immediately afterward. Uncertainty seems to be the order of the day [...]
Value Walk   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 14:40:59

UK banks spared downgrades by S&P

S&P carried out a mass-cull of UK bank rating outlooks in the wake of the country's Brexit vote.
CNBC   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 14:25:00

What the Brexit and Ebola Crises Have in Common

This article was originally published at Stratfor.com. Editor's Note:The Global Affairs column is curated by Stratfor's editorial board, a diverse group of thinkers whose expertise inspires rigorous and innovative thought in our analyses. Though their opinions are their own, they inform and sometimes even challenge our beliefs. We welcome that ...
Stratfor, Contributor / Forbes   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 14:14:00

Maybe the Italian Bank Problem Will Get Taken Care Of (and a note on a commodity indicator)

From FT Alphaville: Italian banks, this is euro area politics. We think you already know each other? Italian banks are a problem. Post-Brexit they're a serious problem. A full recap of said banking sector and its estimated €200bn of gross non-performing loans would, according to JPM, "require up to €40 ...
Climateer Investing   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 14:12:00

Property funds fall, the lowest ever 10-year mortgage, and a car hire guide

Plus, the the impact of Brexit on pensioners living overseas, consumer champions tackle your problems, and summer homes for sale Hello and welcome to this week's Money Talks - a roundup of the week's biggest stories and some things you may have missed. Continue reading...
Hilary Osborne / Guardian   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 13:41:13

Eton Mess: how the referendum result has exposed the fragility of our constitutional arrangements

The Brexit referendum has put added pressure on the UK's floundering constitution. It is time for a codified constitution. (Image: Josh Hallett, Eton - Windsor Berkshire, UK, An important part of the case for Vote Leave was the perceived undemocratic character of the European Union and the 'democratic deficit' of ...
Open Democracy   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 13:38:06

As Redemption "Panic" Accelerates, Two More UK Property Funds Slash Value Of Their Property Assets

Here come dominoes #8 and #9. As we reported yesterday, in the latest twist of the post-Brexit "falling dominoes" where UK property funds have frozen assets and suspended redemptions, which has so far seen over half of the the £25bn in UK property sector suspend trading including such names as ...
Zero Hedge   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 13:04:30

How to fix the jobs report: stop responding to it like Pavlov's dog

We can't trust the monthly employment data as the labor department often misses the mark and more Americans are working in the gig economy In this new post-Brexit universe, what happens to your investment nest egg is going to depend a lot on all kinds of economic data points - ...
Suzanne McGee / Guardian   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 12:58:46

JPMorgan said in jobs warning

JPMorgan could be forced to move thousands of staff out of Britain if the country loses its automatic right to sell financial services to the European Union after last month's Brexit vote, bank CEO Jamie Dimon told an Italian newspaper.
Here Is The City   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 12:51:01

Thursday Morning Links

MUST READS The Italian job - The Economist Italy: Europe's next domino to fall? - CNN/Money Deutsche Bank: World's most dangerous bank? - BBC Europe Banks Close to Breaching Crisis Lows - Bloomberg Brexit Impact: 3 More UK Property Funds Suspend Trading - IBT FBI director to face Republican fire ...
Tim Iacono   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 12:07:38

OECD calls for action to protect workers amid weak wage growth

Brexit vote and slowdown in global growth cast further shadows over outlook for wages for UK workers, thinktank finds Employment across developed countries has almost recovered to pre-crisis levels but weak wage growth has blighted living standards, a respected thinktank has said, as it called for more government action to ...
Katie Allen / Guardian   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 12:03:47

A constitutional convention would be a Brexit-scale crisis for the U.S.

Americans watched with detached amazement as British voters embraced the blatant lies of pseudo-populists and turned the structure of their nation on its head. We should not be smug, however. A Brexit-scale event could happen here. Indeed, right now a quiet campaign to call a new constitutional...
David Super / LA Times   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 12:00:00

Frontrunning: July 7

Global stocks and sterling bounce after Brexit bashing (Reuters) FBI director to face Republican fire over Clinton email probe (Reuters) UK's Hammond says Article 50 a decision for government, not parliament (Reuters) GOP Puts Pressure on Clinton, FBI After Lynch Closes Email Probe (WSJ) Gold's Most Accurate Forecaster Says Prices ...
Zero Hedge   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 11:42:53

Property Fund Turmoil in the UK has Eerie Echoes of Bear Stearns

The fallout from Brexit continues and financial uncertainty can be seen in the markets as the British Pound continues to come under pressure and a growing number of property funds in the UK freezing redemptions. The Telegraph's Ben Marlow draws some chilling comparisons with the Bear Stearns crisis of 2007. ...
Zero Hedge   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 11:35:36

10 Thursday AM Reads

My morning train vacation reads: • How remain failed: the inside story of a doomed campaign (The Guardian) see also Did economists fail us over Brexit? (FT) • Five bricks in the wall of worry (Macro Man) • Take a Simple Idea and Take It Seriously (Motley Fool) • Why ...
The Big Picture   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 11:30:54

Lagarde warns of Trump-style protectionism

IMF chief says Brexit could cost UK up to 4.5 per cent of growth
FT   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 11:22:36

Leadsom declines to respond to CV queries

Pro-Brexit leadership candidate outlines approach to UK economy
FT   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 11:18:59

Global growth: stay positive unless money trends reverse

Global economic growth appeared to be picking up at mid-year, as had been suggested by a rise in real narrow money expansion in late 2015. The view here is that the Brexit vote shock may delay but is unlikely to derail a further improvement in economic momentum during the second ...
Money Moves Markets   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 11:13:26

Numis hands big upgrade to Melrose PLC after Nortek buy

City firm Numis upgraded Melrose PLC (LON:MRO) to 'add' from 'reduce' on the back of its acquisition announced yesterday of US ventilation and home security products maker Nortek. In a post Brexit vote flurry into a potential new era, the UK listed turn-around firm is paying £2.154bn - equating to ...
Proactive Investors   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 10:08:00

World stock indexes higher on upbeat US economic report

HONG KONG (AP) - Global stock benchmarks were mostly higher Thursday after an upbeat U.S. economic report helped ease persistent investor concerns over Brexit-related global turmoil.
Associated Press   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 09:49:27

Angela Leadsom calls for 'prosperity not austerity' in Tory leadership pitch

Pro-Brexit leadership contender appears to ditch George Osborne's economic strategy as she vows to 'banish the pessimists' Andrea Leadsom has set out her pitch to be a positive and optimistic Conservative prime minister, promising to the goal would be "prosperity, not austerity". Related: Tory leadership battle: Andrea Leadsom says 'let's ...
Rowena Mason Political correspondent / Guardian   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 09:23:13

CEE MARKETS-Bonds retreat, robust debt auctions expected

* Hungary, Poland, Romania auction bonds * Brexit seen fuelling demand at CEE bond sales * Hope for Moody's upgrade additional help to Hungarian bonds By Sandor Peto BUDAPEST/WARSAW,...
Reuters   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 09:02:20

Tory leadership contest: Betting odds and poll predictions on who is favourite to become Prime Minister

Daniel Dunford / Telegraph   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 08:27:29

Sports Direct profits fall on wage costs

Sportswear chain warns Brexit vote and sterling plunge will depress future earnings
FT   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 08:05:06

Sports Direct not going private in near future, says Mike Ashley

Owner of leisurewear retailer says company expects fall in profits and says Brexit fears will mean uncertain year ahead Mike Ashley has told Sports Direct's board that he has no current intention to take the company private, as the retailer revealed a worse than expected fall in profits. Dave Forsey, ...
Sarah Butler / Guardian   |   Thu, 7 Jul 2016 07:06:01

Britain is plunging towards an economic nightmare, and it isn't just because of Brexit.

On Monday morning, Markit released its latest set of data on the state of the UK's construction sector, and to say things didn't look good would be an understatement. The sector slipped into contraction for the first time since April 2013, hitting just 46.o, a shock fall from an already ...
Will Martin / Business Insider   |   Mon, 4 Jul 2016 16:29:17

The Leave campaign was toxic - but 43 years of embarrassed pro-Europeanism paved the way for Brexit

Yes, the Leave campaign was dishonest and some have argued criminally irresponsible; but are British pro-Europeans blameless, asks Eunice Goes? Political parties have for years avoided any discussion on the positive aspects of the EU, they rarely explained how the UK benefits from EU investment, all while the Eurosceptic press ...
Blog Admin / British Politics and Policy at LSE   |   Sun, 3 Jul 2016 06:00:27

"The Loss Of Central Bank Credibility Is The Biggest Tail Risk" BofA Warns Brexit Threat Remains

Despite the rapid decline in short-term risk momentum, there is no doubt in BofA's mind that the world is a riskier place following the UK's decision to leave the EU. Hence, they warn, the chances for additional critical stress events as Brexit unfolds remain high, and given the critical role ...
Tyler Durden / Zero Hedge   |   Sat, 2 Jul 2016 22:45:00

Brexit fears push back hopes of US interest rate rise to 2018

Peter Spence / Telegraph   |   Sat, 2 Jul 2016 18:56:48

The economic risks of Brexit contagion

Poll may trigger a cycle of low growth and populist policies in the west, writes Kenneth Rogoff
FT   |   Fri, 1 Jul 2016 16:55:39

Fed's Stanley Fischer Says Brexit Implications Still Being Evaluated

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Friday the Fed will know more by its July meeting about the implications of the so-called Brexit vote for the U.S. economy, and said those effects will be weighed against positive incoming U.S. economic data.
WSJ   |   Fri, 1 Jul 2016 15:32:43

The Macroeconomics of Brexit: Motivated Reasoning?

Sloppy thinking is always a vice.
Paul Krugman / Paul Krugman - Blog   |   Thu, 30 Jun 2016 21:04:06

Brexit talks will be stunningly complex. Who will provide the statesmanship we need?

Tony Blair / Telegraph   |   Thu, 30 Jun 2016 21:00:00

Some Traders See Emerging Markets Coming Back

A week after the U.K. vote to leave the European Union sparked a global market rout, some investors are already betting that emerging markets are on their way back.
WSJ   |   Thu, 30 Jun 2016 20:19:52

Brexit has demolished George Osborne's deficit plan. The next PM will need one of their own

Jeremy Warner / Telegraph   |   Thu, 30 Jun 2016 19:29:19

Brexit and the Idea of European Disintegration

Britain has voted to leave the European Union (EU), or more accurately, England has voted to leave. The majority in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar voted to remain. The opinion polls, the bookies and the markets did not predict this outcome. The mood of the nation, it would seem, is ...
Aidan Regan / Irish Economy   |   Thu, 30 Jun 2016 19:26:53

Italy rescues bank after EU plea snubbed

Germany turns down Renzi's request to ease rules during Brexit turmoil
FT   |   Thu, 30 Jun 2016 15:48:23

UK looks China and India after Brexit

Prime minister calls business leaders to Number 10
FT   |   Thu, 30 Jun 2016 11:27:07

The Real Lesson From Brexit

Luigi Zingales at ProMarket: The Real Lesson From Brexit: ...What we have observed in Britain and ... in the U.S. with Trump is a growing mistrust of voters toward experts. In the Brexit debate it was hard to find any...
Mark Thoma / Economist's View   |   Wed, 29 Jun 2016 18:57:44

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